In the era of mobile Internet, tablet outsell the PC is a matter of time, even before there predictable Tablet PC sales in 2015 will exceed the PC. The problem is, how did these projections come out? Is that true?
Market research firm Asymco analyst Horace Dediu according to the analysis of a number of the manufacturer’s data on the PC, Mac, the iPad, and Android Tablet, analysed and predicted the future’s Tablet PC sales.
First is the basic assumption of this study:
- Mac growth continues at 25% as it has on average for a few years
- Windows grows slightly in 2012 with the introduction of Windows 8 late in the year. However I anticipate Windows 8, including tablet versions, to mostly be upgrades with slow enterprise take-up within this time frame.
- The tablet versions of Windows begin shipping in Q4 2012 with 7% of total Windows shipped. The ratio reaches 20% by end of 2013.
- iPad growth will flatten for ’12 and ’13 at 100%, similar to iPhone’s historic performance.
- Android tablet growth will be significant in the current year and follow iPad growth pattern though settling at 80% during ’13.
- Amazon growth will be approximately 80%.
The above assumptions, the following is the analysis data of Dediu. the annual growth rate forecast for Windows, Mac, iPad, Android and Amazon since the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2013.
Below is the forecast of the market share trends for each type of product. Which to the second quarter of 2013, Amazon, Android and iOS devices will over OS X and Windows devices, but also with part of the Windows tablet. (FF = form factor)
The following is a sales forecast map of PC supplier, it can not see the specific share of the tablet and PC from this map. But as the previous forecast, it is estimated that by the end of 2013, tablet sales is very likely outsell the PC, no need to wait until 2015.